Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 38.251209 45.335572 53.156719 62.402856 73.004479 84.748955 98.711679
2024-10-20 30.445371 40.499346 52.697182 68.451922 88.113674 111.683463 141.899652
2024-10-27 22.210970 32.520056 46.030776 64.757331 89.719926 121.493512 164.578159
2024-11-03 18.780131 29.720116 44.970592 67.310917 98.638282 140.360608 199.346265
2024-11-10 16.576251 28.075810 44.984088 70.944614 108.923845 161.429703 238.227224
2024-11-17 14.696630 26.503168 44.729498 73.923594 118.271803 181.626123 277.069211
2024-11-24 12.592126 24.166709 42.911479 74.193840 123.458445 196.055811 308.497584
2024-12-01 10.424607 21.319729 39.839055 72.036086 124.573641 204.372888 331.323589
2024-12-08 9.070458 19.653302 38.442468 72.317983 129.345128 218.273736 363.054426
2024-12-15 8.052007 18.424198 37.604842 73.368101 135.315581 234.251147 398.710053
2024-12-22 6.309396 15.450232 33.223386 67.745287 129.631282 231.323129 404.578447
2024-12-29 5.753345 14.815004 33.094835 69.669409 136.871130 249.558421 444.918439
2025-01-05 4.749525 13.131895 30.936009 68.051105 138.588033 260.169899 475.960775
2025-01-12 4.608814 13.420035 32.842991 74.533051 155.672660 298.247601 555.460562
2025-01-19 3.624671 11.435974 29.662520 70.552583 153.021980 302.134364 577.693266
2025-01-26 3.287264 11.008122 29.791334 73.301234 163.324018 329.432138 641.656488
2025-02-02 3.061591 10.826554 30.444553 77.211161 176.193017 362.135139 716.891307
2025-02-09 2.816037 10.526843 30.765354 80.415130 187.890723 393.386221 791.223238
2025-02-16 2.450735 9.770184 29.840221 80.705723 193.636510 413.867590 847.222784
2025-02-23 2.024566 8.690299 27.897377 78.385217 193.674593 423.452628 883.726878
2025-03-02 1.767451 8.092079 27.112349 78.688415 199.292599 444.089656 941.792452
2025-03-09 1.573167 7.655241 26.691607 79.817781 206.782764 468.814532 1008.793523
2025-03-16 1.191713 6.369789 23.590428 73.768697 197.633650 459.618748 1010.291268